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Abstract

The need for food is a primary requirement of society that must be fulfilled. One of the staple foods widely consumed by the Indonesian society is rice. Rice, which comes from paddy fields, is always cultivated to fufill the consumption needs of the community, especially in the surrounding areas. East Java is one of the largest contributors to rice production in Indonesia. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the influence of climate factors in several rice-producing regions in East Java, namely Tuban, Nganjuk, and Gresik regencies, on the level of rice production in those areas. The aim of this research is to analyze factors such as rainfall, humidity, temperature, and rice cultivation area on rice production quantity. The data was collected from BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency) and BPS (Central Statistics Agency) websites for the years 2020-2022 in Tuban, Nganjuk, and Gresik regencies. The analysis method used involves modeling non-parametric B-splines with various combinations of knot points from multiple predictor variables, resulting in the smallest Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) among the possible knot points tested. The modeling results obtained the optimal knots for variable X1 (temperature) of order 2 with three knot points at values 23.45584, 24.32467, and 26.93116. The optimal knot for variable X2 (humidity) of order 2 was at one knot point with a value of 83.3828. The optimal knots for variable X3 (rainfall) of order 2 were two knot points with values of 5.177247 and 15.51238. The optimal knot for variable X4 (rice cultivation area) of order 2 was at one knot point with a value of 16,939.25. The minimum GCV value obtained was 18,462,458. The analysis results indicate that all variables have a significant influence, although for climate variables, there were some segments that were less significant, with an value adjusted R-Square of 0.987

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